Activity grew 1.2% in September and consolidated four months on the rise, well above expectations. There will be a virtual tie: although the Government lost the elections due to the effect of the economy on the pockets, the PBI It will end 2021 with an average increase of 10%, similar to the 9.9% drop suffered in 2020. It should be noted that such a result will not compensate for what was lost last year, but there will still be a drop of 0 , 9% compared to the 2019 average.

The exit of the second wave of contagions of Covid-19 showed a good reactivation, well above expected. The third quarter of the year, by case, ended with a GDP increase of 4.2% compared to the second quarter, leaving aside seasonal factors. For reference, in the Market Expectations Survey (REM), which carries out every month the BCRA Through a survey among banks and consulting firms in the city, the expectation was an improvement of 0.6% in the third quarter. The reality was far above.

These four months growing at an average rate of 1.6% per month led the Minister of Economy, Martin Guzman, to be noted: “The economic activity data for September shows how strong and solid the economic recovery is proving. With this evolution of the activity consistent with the economic policy for the recovery that we are carrying out, we project a GDP growth for 2021 of almost 10% ”.

From the consulting firm LCG They agreed, they increased their projection for GDP 2021 to an identical 10% growth and detailed the numbers: “For the remainder of the year we still expect months of economic growth, although at more moderate rates than those registered in the third quarter of the year. . If the recovery slows down in September, 2021 would close with an average annual growth of 9.7%. An annual growth of 10% as announced by the minister does not look crazy with these data: it is equivalent to an average monthly growth of 0.5% in the last three months ”.

And they added: “In effect, we have corrected our annual growth projection to 10% per year, which would be consistent with an end-to-end recovery, that is, December 2021 versus December 2020, of 8.7%. This recovery would leave a drag of almost 5 points for next year ”.

The economy will face very complicated challenges during 2022, as detailed by LCG. The exchange gap, the inflation, with the extra that they will be able to add the virtual defrosting of the official dollar and the rates, added to an arrangement with the IMF which is a condition to bring exchange rate calm but at the same time puts a brake on the fiscal impulse. Many problems that limit growth. But, even so, as long as there are no black swans, only with the statistical drag the government will start its last year with an economy running 4% above what it received when it took office in December 2019.

Leaving aside the comparisons between annual averages, it should be noted that in September the GDP already began to operate above the levels of that same month of 2019, with an increase of 4.7%. This performance during the pandemic is not too out of step with that of the rest of the countries that have already published their September numbers, as highlighted from the Center for Studies for Production (CEP XXI): Brazil grew only 0.7% in that period, the United States 2.2%, Peru 3%, Paraguay 3.8%. France and the United Kingdom fell 0.4 and 0.8%, respectively. Chile surpasses all with an improvement of 9.3%. Colombia was the other South American that grew above Argentina, with 5.8%.


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