Friday, December 6, 2019
Home Health & Fitness Do we overestimate the risks of cancer in the course of life?

Do we overestimate the risks of cancer in the course of life?

The method used in Australia to determine lifetime risk estimates for cancer diagnosis and mortality could lead to an overestimate of these risks, particularly in men, according to researchers at the University of Sydney and the University of Sydney. Bond University.

Cancer registries and organizations such as the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) use data on cancer incidence and age-specific mortality over a calendar year to estimate lifetime risks of diagnosis and cancer mortality.

However, the method used to reach these numbers assumes that there are no competing causes of death, which could lead to an overestimation of risk for life and the researchers recommended the adoption of A more accurate methodology.

The results were published online today in the Medical Journal of Australia.

Dr. Katy Bell of the Faculty of Medicine and Health of the University of Sydney was the lead author of the analysis, which was led by Dr. Anthea Bach of the Hospital and the West Moreton Health Services and Dr. Kelvin Lo of Westmead Hospital. Professor Alexandra Barratt of Sydney, also from the School of Public Health, also participated in the study.

The researchers calculated their own estimates of lifetime cancer risk and cancer deaths, adjusted for competing mortality, and compared their results with the corresponding risks published by AIHW.

"AIHW estimates consistently outperformed our competing estimates of the risk of death-adjusted diagnosis and lifetime mortality for the five cancers," Dr. Bell and colleagues wrote.

The authors analyzed the publicly available annual AIHW data on age-related cancer incidence and mortality – for breast cancer, colorectal cancer, prostate cancer, melanoma of the skin and lung cancer – and all-cause mortality in Australia between 1982 and 2013.

. (tagsToTranslate) Katy Bell (t) Health & Medicine (t) Alexandra Barratt

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