Demographic winter, 2.2 million over 90s in 2070: here is the impact on public finances and health care spending

Service The general state of the birth rate This is one of the alarms launched on Thursday by Gian Carlo Blangiardo, past president of Istat, on the occasion of the general state of the birth rate. Blangiardo, provided shocking data, with a drop in the Italian population of 11 million people. We have to guarantee a quality of life to these gentlemen here. Let’s take this into account because there will be enormous health care costs to give a quality of life to such an aged population”. It is one of the alarms raised on Thursday by Gian Carlo Blangiardo, past president of Istat, on the occasion of the General States of the Natality. Blangiardo, provided shocking data, with a drop in the Italian population of 11 million people. Population down by 11 million in the next few years In about ten years, Blangiardo recalled at the conference, Italy has gone from 500,000 births a year, to the negative record of 2022, of 390,000, compared with 700,000 deaths. In the next few years, in the absence of interventions, the population will go from the current 59 million to 48. Equally effective are the figures of the Minister of Education Giuseppe Valditara: students will drop in 10 years from today’s 7.4 million to 6. Giorgetti’s data is also growing anxiety: “between now and 2042, with current fertility rates, our country risks losing impressive percentages of GDP along the way, equal to 18%”. Not to mention the pensions that cannot be paid because, the minister observed, there will be far fewer workers than pensioners. Towards a tax exemption for families with children In this dystopian film scenario, the government has undertaken to intervene to reverse the trend. Giorgetti alluded to a tax exemption for families with children, so as to increase their “disposable income”. Matteo Salvini quantified this tax exemption at 10 thousand euros, which however to some observers seemed to imply the abolition of the single check, with the consequent halt not to touch it by the former minister Elena Bonetti and Elly Schlein, while Carlo Calenda proposed to increase it. Single allowance or family services The government has for now shown itself oriented towards the fiscal instrument, unlike other countries (such as France, Germany and the Nordics) which have focused more on family services to promote women’s employment and therefore the second salary at home; however, Minister Eugenia Roccella has announced an imminent measure to increase maternity services. Reproduction reserved ©