Düsseldorf The German stock market is looking for a new direction: Tuesday’s trading was unspectacular – there were only 162 points between the day’s high and low. Shortly before the close of trading, the Dax rose again and closed 0.6 percent higher at 12,310 points.
With today’s trading day a remarkable second quarter comes to an end. After the fastest and most dynamic setback in Dax history, the past three months have brought an equally breathtaking recovery.
The technical analysts at Bank HSBC did the math: with a price increase of 23 percent, the current quarter secured a place on the podium – only the final quarter of 1999 and the second quarter of 2003 (plus 35 percent and plus 33 percent) were even more successful.
With today’s closing level, the index was again able to defend the important chart-technical brand in the range of 12,000 points. “Values around 12,100 in the Dax are considered buying opportunities – even if only for speculation and not yet for long-term persuasive purchases, ”said Stephan Heibel after evaluating the weekly Handelsblatt survey Dax-Sentiment on Monday.
A rapid recovery in the economy is currently being priced in on the financial market. Will it work? Sentiment expert Heibel predicts that the expectation of rising prices will at least be questioned in the coming weeks. “Then the Corona losers, who have risen in parallel with the winners in the past few weeks, should not fall for it,” warns the managing director of the analysis company Animusx.
The example of Deutsche Lufthansa shows proof of this theory. The stock is one of the classic losers in the corona crisis. The threat of bankruptcy was avoided with a government bailout package worth billions.
The back and forth around the package left clear traces in the course development. The paper slipped to € 7.02 in mid-April, the lowest level in more than ten years. After the subsequent rally to EUR 12.56 as the highest price, the share stabilized at EUR 9, although the company slipped out of the Dax into the MDax. Also on Tuesday, the share certificate is trading at 8.94 euros, a decrease of 0.8 percent.
But what do they do Hedge funds that have made a lot of money by speculating on falling prices at Wirecard? They are increasing their bet that Lufthansa, as the loser share of the corona crisis, will soon be weaker again. Their so-called short sale quota is now at least 11.99 percent of all freely tradable shares. Eleven hedge funds are among them, three of them increased their quota last Friday, according to the Federal Gazette.
At the airport operator Fraport, another classic loser of the corona crisis, the bet on falling prices has been increased in recent days. The same applies to the two steel values Thyssen-Krupp and Salzgitter, albeit to a lesser extent.
Short sellers speculate on falling prices by lending and selling shares in a company, for example in mutual funds. In order to return these shares after the deadline, you have to buy them again beforehand – of course at a lower price if possible.
The situation with Wirecard shares is exactly the opposite. After the dramatic fall in the share price, the short sale rate has now more than halved and is now at 7.69 percent.
But an increase of 154 percent last Monday shows that the stock is only a piece of paper for gamers. As of Tuesday, paper headed by almost 170 percent to 9.20. At the close of trading, the paper was trading at EUR 5.73, up 75.8 percent.
Look at individual values
Commerzbank: The bank canceled its board meeting on the savings plans. In unconfirmed media reports, it is said that the bank could cut up to 7,000 jobs and close about 400 branches. Commerzbank shares closed at the level of the previous day, but are among the better values among European banks.
Varta: With a share price increase of 3.2 percent, Varta was one of the favorites on the German stock market. The company receives 300 million euros from the state for the expansion of battery cell production. This step was expected, however, said a stock exchange operator.
Look at other asset classes
The Fear of a second wave of coronavirus infection and rising inflation thanks to the multi-billion dollar stimulus from central banks and states makes gold attractive. At just over $ 1,773 per troy ounce, the “anti-crisis currency” currently costs just under 12.8 percent more than at the beginning of April and is thus facing the strongest quarterly profit since the first quarter of 2016.
However, the increase of a good 16 percent four years ago followed after a loss of six quarters and started from a very low level. In contrast, the quarterly increase this time is the seventh in a row and started at a significantly higher level. The current increase is therefore of a completely different quality. However, there is one thing in common: the price increase then and now was primarily due to strong investment demand.
Gold in the European common currency, the euro, rises to 1,586 euros per troy ounce, as the US dollar appreciates after unexpectedly strong data on the US real estate market. The fact that gold opposes this appreciation can be seen as a sign of relative strength, say the Commerzbank analysts.
With an interim increase of more than 21 percent and a price of just over $ 6,000 a ton, copper signaled the biggest quarterly profit in ten years. The industrial metal benefits twice from the virus crisis, said Ulrich Stephan, chief investment strategist for private and corporate customers at Deutsche Bank. “While there are failures on the supply side due to temporary mine closures, the local stocks there are falling rapidly due to the strong demand in China.”
Thanks to the global economic stimulus programs to overcome the pandemic, the trend towards electromobility and the expansion of new mobile networks according to the 5G standard, copper is facing a bright future.
Here is the page with the Dax course, here are the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current short sales by investors can be found in our short sales database.