Covid-19: a simulator estimates when you can get vaccinated

The trip abroad, restaurant option, mojito and especially immunity to Covid, when is it? Not now, in the case of a 30-year-old without comorbidity, if we are to believe the site Omni Calculator, which has developed a “tail calculator for the vaccine”. More clearly, the tool allows you to discover from public data and the current vaccination rhythm when it will be your turn to undergo both injections (if you wish).

Like almost any curious user, we tried it out, and, without living in nursing homes or working in the healthcare sector, we end up with 20 to 30 million people “higher priority” than ourselves in the long race for two bites. For a thirty-something in shape, the deadline for the two injections would be between the end of November 2021 and mid-April 2022. All this based on the acceptance rate of the vaccine in the French population.

It could be worse, since the projection for the same profile in New Delhi suggests a complete vaccine between April 2024 and May 2030. In the United Kingdom, the industrial rate of vaccination projected (2.6 million doses per week thanks to Astra Zeneca ) would make us hope for a passage between March 26 and April 24 for the first injection but only at the end of June or early July for the second, in accordance with the local strategy which aims to reach as many people as possible with a first cover, even less.

A million people waiting in the queue

For an 88-year-old French grandmother, according to the tool, there are less than a million people waiting in the queue, and a hope of getting a first dose within two weeks. This demonstrates the theoretical aspect of the simulation: this person is indeed already eligible, like all those over 75 years old, provided they get an appointment.

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The tool developed by Salam Mubarak, doctor in robotics graduated from the National Institute of Applied Sciences (Insa) in Lyon, in collaboration with a Polish doctoral student in mathematics, is it intended to alert on a possible French slowness ? “Not at all,” replies the designer who now works in Dubai. The idea came from Steven Wooding, who launched the UK version on the site. It was a huge success with over 15 million views so we figured there might be some interest in other countries. “Hence the variation for more than ten countries.

The model is indeed easily reproducible, because it is based on the architecture of the start-up which offers more than 1,500 computers. It remains to use reliable data to achieve credible results. And this is the whole difficulty, mentioned by the researcher: “The official data are very scattered and lack details. We carry out our research with official sources such as INSEE for the age groups of the population, the Haute Autorité de Santé, the Scientific Council for decisions on vaccination, Ipsos for the acceptance of the vaccine … Sometimes, we have to also use less formal reports to condense all data. “

The French can hope to be vaccinated in 2021

While Olivier Véran says he wants to finish the first vaccination campaign before the end of the summer, the tool calls for caution, but it must be taken with tweezers, even with gloves (surgical, of course). “The figures are based on projections of 500,000 vaccines injected per week, which reflects the current reality,” explains Salam Mubarak. If the average rises to 2 million doses per week, the French can hope to be vaccinated in 2021. We carry out daily updates to provide the most realistic estimate possible, but we leave the hand to users to change the data. -even if they wish. “

Indeed, if we are counting on 2 million doses injected per week, a rate hoped for in February, the sky is clearing up with a promise of complete vaccination before the end of June if the acceptance rate remains at its current level (only 56% in France).

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If the site collects cookies for advertising purposes, Salam Mubarak ensures that it “respects the personal data of users”. In its conditions of use, Omni Calculator also ensures that it does not store the data entered in the calculator.