We are now less than a decade from the deadline set by many companies to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030. Likewise, the 2050 deadline set by many countries to achieve this is looming. on the horizon. To achieve these goals, considerable progress will have to be made. But how ?
If there is one sector which consumes huge masses of natural resources, but which, in our view, offers the possibility of realistic change, it is aviation. Succeeding in reducing its emissions would be a great victory. In 2019, the sector alone absorbed no less than 8% of total oil production1, the equivalent of nearly 7.5 million barrels per day.2 In 2020, the Covid-19 ground most airlines to the ground, leading to a 39% drop in fuel consumption3. In the long term, however, air transport still has a bright future, given the importance of mobility today. However, due to a lack of political impetus, planes will continue to burn fossil fuels, and it is estimated that by 2050, the sector could consume more than 14 million barrels per day, a quantity of oil greater than the consumption of China in 2019 (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Aviation fuel demand vs oil demand by country
Source: BloombergNEF, 2020
To draw an analogy with aviation, the SAFs are on the take-off runway. All they need is technology, political will, pressure from shareholders and the development of mandates to be able to take off.
Andrea Carzana, Portfolio Manager
1 BP, Statistical review of world energy, June 2020
2 BloombergNEF, 2020
3 BloombergNEF, 2020
4 No reference to a specific company can be considered a recommendation.
6 IATA, 2021
7 IATA, 2021
8 World Economic Forum, 2021
9 Presentation of the management of Neste, February 2021
10 Exane BNP Paribas, Global Airlines: Sustainable Change, 13 mai 2021
11 https://biofuels-news.com/news/neste-and-all-nippon-airways-collaborate-on-first-supply-of-sustainable-aviation-fuel-in-asia/ October 26, 2020
12 ISCC Global Sustainability Conference, February 2021
13 https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2020-03-06/dutch-government-targets-saf-blending-mandate-2023 6 mars 2020
14 Exane BNP Paribas, Global Airlines: Sustainable Change, 13 mai 2021
15 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-energy-aviation-idUSKBN2AJ0LH February 19, 2021
16 Analyse Columbia Threadneedle, 2021
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