The June 6 election shook the board of presidential succession.
In terms of 2024, it has been a tough few weeks for President López Obrador and his party: between May and June, his two favorite presidential candidates were severely injured.
On the night of May 3, when a section of Metro Line 12 collapsed, Marcelo Ebrard and Claudia Sheinbaum suffered serious disasters. Much more the first than the second. The collapse, together with the suspicions of corruption that have accompanied this work, will be indelible for the chancellor.
For Claudia Sheinbaum, the crisis had a way out: blaming Marcelo. It was not going to be easy to get rid of responsibility, but it was possible. However, the brutal defeat this Sunday in Mexico City also leaves her on the canvas. Morena’s fall in the capital has more to do with a vote of punishment for López Obrador than for Sheinbaum, but even so, she was the political one in charge of operating the election and rendering good accounts to her boss. Failure.
As if the bad news were not enough for the president, within his own party, the one who came out strengthened was Ricardo Monreal, whose brother will be governor of Zacatecas and whose favorite won, from the opposition because he was denied the Morenoist candidacy, the mayoralty of Cuauhtémoc in Mexico City, of which Monreal had been a delegate. López Obrador has always hindered Monreal. It treats him as a “necessary evil.” Well, the necessary evil was better off than his heir and his trusted collaborator.
Fortunately for the president, the other parties do not seem to have relevant figures.
In the PRI there is a fierce fight between Alejandro “Alito” Moreno and Alfredo Del Mazo. If the PRI defeat in Campeche is confirmed, Alito remains on the canvas. It is almost a written rule of the PRI members that you have to win your state before considering a presidential candidacy. Alito will seek to reconfigure himself, as he could be the coordinator of the opposition PRI bench of deputies. He will have a headwind because his main rival within the party, the governor of the State of Mexico, delivered good accounts on Sunday: he did well in the Mexican municipal elections. Del Mazo still has his own succession at stake in 2023, a necessary but not sufficient condition if he wants to aspire to the presidential candidacy.
In the PAN, Ricardo Anaya decided not to be a candidate for the election this Sunday. He was not part of the fight for the counterweights. He tried to stay in the public discussion, but did not fully succeed and appears blurred, sporadic. Some PAN governors delivered good electoral accounts, but none have expressed their presidential aspiration with vigor and determination.
In the Citizen Movement is Enrique Alfaro, who has always flirted with the idea, but if something made clear this Sunday is that MC alone does not have a national presence: he got 7% of the votes and a bench of about twenty deputies. Although Alfaro did well in Jalisco, he is not considered “the” father of Samuel García’s victory in Nuevo León. Within the party, rather possible rivals were born.
Del Verde, PRD and PT can only be expected to see who they join.
What remains, then, is to wait. To see if someone rebounds, to see if a lying person gets up from the canvas, or to see new figures emerge among the governors or legislators, new or in office.
After all, there are still three years to go.