Bold Reflections #30: The Foolish Reelection

In this opinion article I will be as coherent as possible, I will not criticize what we have supported at some point in the past, however I will explain the need that almost all Dominican rulers have had to re-apply consecutively at any cost.

It has always been said that the President who does not aspire to be re-elected loses support and the loyalty of the officials under his command, but, above all, that he is exposed to suffering from the loneliness of power early, How much truth is there in all this? Is it that no one can stop their addiction to power? Or is it just the fear caused by having to come down from Olympus? 2020 like today is still looking for the same way.

It will be causality, the work of providence, karma or bad luck, but in the last 100 years of Republican life only the presidents of PRD origin constitutionally elected did not manage to be re-elected, although all of them in one way or another tried, Don Antonio, Jorge Blanco and Hipólito Mejía; President Abinader would he seek to break that fatalistic design, or is it that the PRM ship does not have any other proven captain to take him back to a safe port.

Foolishness occurs when a person does not show the quality of good judgment, prudence, maturity in their acts and decisions, as it seems to be seen in these official places, because there really are not the slightest conditions for in an act of existential sanity to engage in such an adventurous action, but since we have to submit to scientific and historical rigor, I will explain with data not with my particular appreciative criteria, rather with verifiable facts, the reasons for our assertion in this “decalogue to an imprudent reappointment”let’s see:

  1. In the last 17 electoral processes in the American continent, only in two cases has the official party been imposed in Nicaragua with the FSLN, with its particular overtones that we all know, and in Canada, where the Liberal Party of the current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Despite obtaining much fewer votes than the opposition, it won more seats, and managed to retain power by making a majority in alliance with other parties, but its vote was barely 32% of the votes, here you need to have 50% plus 1 to win. the Presidency of the Republic;
  2. In 12 of those 17 electoral processes, the ruling party was totally out of the contest, because the official party did not occupy either the 1st or the 2nd place, in the citizen preferences of the countries where said elections were held;
  3. With a sea of ​​popularity in 2020, plus the division of the almighty PLD of that time, with a general weariness of the population for 16 uninterrupted years of government of the purples, with the support of the largest municipal and senatorial alliance of 17 political parties and with the manifest support of all the factual powers of the Nation, President Abinader only obtained 52.52% of the votes in the sum of seven parties that nominated him, but the PRM only obtained 48.70% of these, for 1,998,407 votes. in his favor;
  4. But the most demonstrative thing that the division of the PLD created despair in its ranks was the very high abstention that occurred, although it could be argued that it was a product of the pandemic, plus the numbers do not lie of 7,529, 932 registered citizens able to vote only they cast 4,163,305 votes, a historic low vote of just 55.29% of the electoral roll, out of an average turnout of around 70%, almost 15% of those registered failed to vote for an appreciable amount of 1,129,000 absentee voters;
  5. It turns out that in the same elections where President Abinader won, 27 opposition senators were elected, where almost all of them obtained much more votes in percentage than the elected President, some even obtaining almost 69% of the votes in their favor, it was at that level of choice where the true tsunami electoralthe work of the armed opposition alliance as a strategy for the electoral platform “Together We Can”;
  6. In the Colombian elections, the official party, the Democratic Center, led by former president Álvaro Uribe, could not even run for its own presidential candidate and the majority of the militants of that organization supported the candidate Fico Gutiérrez, who came in third place out of the ballot, the next presidential election date is in Brazil, which will be on Sunday, October 2 of this year, where the polls are showing a very broad support in favor of Lula da Silva, almost doubling in sympathy to the current president Jair Bolsonaro, ago Just two and a half years, this historic union leader was released from prison accused of corruption;
  7. In the health, food, economic, social and geopolitical multicrisis in which we are living, it is seen that in some areas the worst is yet to come, we are just beginning to feel the aftermath of the pandemic and this new world order that is being building, where scarcity and inflation will be the problems of daily life, then I ask myself: if the people re-elect inflation?
  8. The Government of Change, instead of uniting the nation in a time as difficult as the one we are in, is getting ready for re-election activities in the interest of re-nominating President Abinader, when most of our problems are mainly exogenous, for which no matter how well the government does it, the results may be the same, perhaps due to the misfortune of having to manage a country in the midst of the worst crisis of the last 70 years, according to ECLAC;
  9. The government has several fronts open at the same time, with its own leadership and militancy which has been denied entry to the government train and even the right to vote internally in its party, with the PLD with whom they have an open war, with many of their electoral allies to whom they did not comply, with whom they invested a lot of economic resources and now they do not even answer the phone, with the thousands of military and police officers who have withdrawn, and many of these unfairly canceled, with the middle class that I support them, but that they have left it in the midst of this inflation at the mercy of commercial greed, and above all they have forgotten the most vulnerable sectors, the popular classes, a large part of these indigents, where those who receive the government assistance only gives them food for just two days of the month, due to the high cost of the basic food basket; Y
  10. If President Abinader with all the conditions in his favor in 2020 only obtained 52%, how would he win an election in the midst of so many crisis situations? If he could only win it in the first round, because in a second round the one who classified from the opposition no matter who he is, although I am convinced that it will be Leonel Fernández, he would receive in the second election the electoral support of the citizen opposition vote spontaneously, something that does not depend on any leader or the PLD, nor the FP , nor of any other opposition organization, none of the leaders and leaders of the opposition can give their votes to the government in a second round, because whoever their voters try to do so, they will not take the line and they will leave him alone, talking to the light posts.

Reelection has no mathematical possibility, more so in this rarefied international context, where thinking of winning the game against inflation, insecurity and citizen fear of impotence due to the unexpected, is an extremely risky bet with all the contributing factors against it. , which makes presidential reelection at this time a foolhardy project.

In a country like ours, people bend to power in an interested and temporary way to seek the benefits that it can provide, in an opportunistic and devious way, many come to fish for their own, but in an attitude of stealthy vigilance for the slightest opportunity to go behind who the population and the polls say will win the next elections, fools are those who do not realize what I express here and prefer to know that there are no endogenous and exogenous conditions to win, insist on buying support or support of those who recently opposed him, when the fair and intelligent thing was that those who were loyal to them for many years and those who helped them win the 2020 elections will be rewarded, with the purpose that in another future electoral opportunity, to be able to count on them, but the perredeistas, today perremeistas, are the heads of the political jurassic park of the nation, they are like old parrots that do not learn to speak, and commit the most isms errors always, for those the disastrous results of their government efforts and the unusual fate of their rulers.

Looking for what they will not be able to achieve for the reasons explained here, they can lose what they have and it is the favor even of their own militants, who when they see the opportunist pack arrive, drink from the re-electionist spring, while they have remained like a parakeet on the stake , waiting for the birdseed that in 20 years never came and then seeing how their leaders feed the profiteers and profiteers at the expense of their hard work, they will have to observe later the official high leadership as the forced migration of an important part of theirs will take place to other coasts, due to the great disenchantment and disappointment due to oblivion, there the re-electionists will feel the truthful and wise popular phrase that expresses “Whoever gives bread to someone else’s dog, loses bread and loses dog”.



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