The entire crypto market showed its bearish side in the past trading week. At the beginning of the week, sales on the overall market increased further. Following the key crypto currency on its way to USD 30,000, almost all of the top 100 Altcoins show double-digit price drops.
The crypto market was again weak in the past trading week. In addition to persistently negative news about the Binance.com crypto exchange, the release of around 40,000 Bitcoin from the Grayscale Fund in the last few days of trading has also contributed to the uncertainty among investors. The non-fungible token (NFT) and decentralized finance (DeFi) sectors are also weak again after two bullish weeks and are giving up a large part of their profits.
Best price development among the top 10 altcoins:
Binance Coin (BNB)
The Binance Coin BNB is holding up relatively well with a discount of just under 12 percentage points. The “incineration” by means of the token burn of BNBs worth 400 million USD on the part of Binance on yesterday, Sunday, July 18th, is certainly beneficial. However, as long as the BNB exchange rate does not overcome the area around USD 338 at the daily closing rate, there is a risk of a further decline in the exchange rate towards USD 264 and below.
Bullishe Variante (BNB)
At the time of this analysis, the BNB rate is currently trading below its EMA20 (red) at USD 281 and threatens to give up its moving average lines EMA200 (blue) and MA200 (green) if selling pressure continues. Only when the resistance at USD 315 has been regained and the zone between USD 325 and USD 348 is subsequently left on the upside, the first price target at USD 367 comes into focus again. On the way there are strong resistances with the cross resistance from EMA50 (orange) and the upper Bollinger band as well as the supertrend at USD 348. If the BNB can rise to USD 367 and there is no significant rebound to the south, a march through to USD 390 (38 Fibonacci extension) and USD 407 is conceivable.
Should the BNB rate subsequently also overcome these resistance levels, an increase into the red resistance area should be planned. The monthly high from June 2021 and the 50s Fibonacci retracement at USD 451 can be found in the area of USD 432. If the bulls can also outperform the 50s Fibonacci retracement at USD 451 per day’s closing price, the next target area between USD 480 and USD 501 will be activated. This is where the 61 Fibonacci retracement of the overarching trend movement can be found. If there is a subsequent breakout above USD 501, there is room for a subsequent increase up to the next relevant price target at USD 579. This is where the 78 Fibonacci retracement of the current movement runs. If the overall market can develop positively in the coming trading weeks, BNB could start its maximum price target for the time being in the area of the orange resistance zone between USD 608 and USD 624. For the time being, there is only a low probability of this scenario; the bullish momentum on the market as a whole is currently too weak.
Bearishe Variante (BNB)
As expected in the previous week’s analysis, a directional decision is currently being made in the blue support area. A daily closing price below the cross support of EMA200 (blue) and MA200 (green) at USD 299 will activate further downside potential. If there is a sustained break in this support zone, BNB will consolidate at least to the lower Bollinger band at USD 280, but should even drop to USD 264 in the short term. If this price level is also abandoned, a widening of the correction to the last low at USD 224 is likely. A direct price slide to the May 23 low at USD 211 is also conceivable.
If Bitcoin falls below USD 30,000 in the direction of its low at USD 28,830, BNB could also continue to trend bearish and break down to the lower edge of the yellow support area at USD 186. In the medium term, a relapse of up to USD 165 is possible at any time. The maximum correction target can still be found in the green support zone between USD 148 and USD 124. These support levels come into view, should Bitcoin also give way and correct up to at least 25,000 USD. The first clear sell-signal would be a dynamic break in the blue support zone.
The RSI is currently threatening to break down from its neutral zone between 45 and 55. This activates a fresh sell signal for the Binance Coin. The MACD could also negate its buy signal of the last few weeks on a daily basis and generate a fresh short signal. The MACD continues to have a sell-signal in the weekly chart. If the RSI indicator should also leave the neutral zone on a weekly basis, the selling pressure threatens to intensify again.
Worst price development among the top 10 altcoins:
Polkadot comes in last of the top 10 altcoins this week again clearly under the wheels. On a weekly basis, Polkadot loses around 25 percentage points and activated a fresh sell signal when it fell back below the low at USD 13.12. Yesterday, Sunday, Polkadot failed with the attempt to save itself back above this price level and is currently forming a new low at USD 11.50.
Bullishe Variante (Polka dots)
The cops continue to shine with abstinence. As long as the DOT rate cannot rise back above USD 13.12 in the direction of the EMA20 (red) and beyond, there is a threat of a correction widening to at least USD 10.66. However, if the buyer store manages to buy the DOT rate up to the cross support at USD 15.42, a directional decision will be made here. Only a daily closing price above the supertrend running here activates further price potential in the direction of the 23rd Fibonacci retracement at 17.25 USD. If this chart mark is also broken, the red resistance area moves back into the focus of investors. A strong resistance cluster awaits at USD 18.35 in particular with the EMA50 (orange) and the upper Bollinger band. If this level of resistance can be regained, a subsequent increase of up to USD 19.45 is conceivable. The trailing edge of the current downward movement can be found here.
Should the bullish investors manage to move Polkadot sustainably above this resistance, an increase to the cross resistance at USD 21.71 is conceivable. The EMA200 (blue) and an important horizontal resistor run here. A breakout above this resistance level is therefore not to be expected at the first attempt. However, if the bulls manage to regain this price level in the coming weeks, investors will again focus on the 38 Fibonacci retracement at USD 23.49. If this resist is also overcome dynamically, a march through to the yellow resistance area is possible. In addition to the highs from May and June of this year, the MA200 (green) runs at USD 26.72. In the first attempt, a march back to the maximum price target for the coming period of USD 28.82 should not succeed. Only when Bitcoin can also rise again towards USD 40,000 would a return to the blue box be conceivable. From the current point of view, however, an increase into this chart region is not to be regarded as likely.
Bearishe Variante (Polka-dot)
If Polkadot fails to get back into the green support area and establishes itself below USD 13.12, the breakout level of January 13, 2021 at USD 10.66 will be the first correction target. If the bulls cannot stabilize the DOT rate at this important support either, the correction will expand significantly into the purple support area between USD 7.89 and USD 7.19. Should Bitcoin target USD 25,000 or even USD 20,000 in the coming weeks, Polkadot should break into the orange support area between USD 6.33 and USD 5.72. A sustained overall market weakness could subsequently even allow Polkadot to correct to the maximum bearish price target of USD 4.59. As long as Polkadot cannot initiate a recovery move back above the EMA20, another price decline should be planned.
Indicators (Polka dots):
Both the RSI and the MACD indicator continue to have sell signals active. With a value of 32, the RSI indicator in particular is not far from its oversold area at a value of 30. The bulls must aim to move the RSI indicator back into the neutral zone between 45 and 55 as quickly as possible. Only then would the danger of a sustained downward trend be averted, at least for a short time.
Top 10 stability
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading a good ten percent lower than in the previous week at the end of this trading week. Even the top 10 altcoins cannot escape this price weakness. The ten largest cryptocurrencies all show a discount in the weekly comparison. Polkadot (DOT) tops the list of losers with a decline of 25 percentage points. Uniswap (UNI) also had to give up significantly after two positive weeks of trading and lost 24 percent of its value. The Binance Coin (BNB) can best get out of the affair again with a price discount of only 11 percent. Ripple (XRP) also holds up a little better than the competition and loses a little more than 12 percentage points. With regard to the ranking list, there will be no changes in the ranking list this week. Since the overwhelming majority of the top 10 altcoin are losing at a similar rate, the ranking remains unchanged on a weekly basis.
Winner and Loser of the Week
Once again, the overall market is coming under more pressure and has to cope with some significant price drops across the board. Only three top 100 Altcoins show a price gain at the end of the week. In addition to NEM (XEM) with a 7 percent surcharge, OKB (OKB) can also generate a price increase of two percent. Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) also saved a small price increase of just under one percentage point. The long list of weekly losers is headed by THORChain (RUNE) with a 41 percent drop in price. As a result of a hack of the Crosschain platform, $ 5 million in Ethereum was stolen. The Synthetix Network Token (SNX), Stacks (STX) and the previous week’s loser Telcoin (TEL) are also weak, each with a price decline of around 35 percent.
Flow (FLOW) and the previous week’s winner KuCoin Token (KCS) each lose around 32 percent of their value. With a few exceptions, the market as a whole is tending to be bearish, but there was no further strong sell-off in the past week. As long as the crypto key currency Bitcoin (BTC) can stay above USD 30,000 and the trading volume is still well below the volume of the previous months, it remains to be seen whether there will be a sustainable breakthrough of this important support brand. The strong inflows of bitcoins and stable coins on all crypto exchanges in the last hours of trading are cause for concern. If the selling pressure continues to rise, the chance of a relapse increases dramatically to at least $ 28,000.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not constitute buy or sell recommendations. They are only an assessment of the analyst.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD / EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: 0.85 euros.