October was an exceptional month for bullish investors in Australian dollars, and further gains could be recorded this month.
However, RBC Capital Markets said it was not changing its year-end guidance by 68 cents US for the currency.
The US dollar slid 0.5 percent to 68.63 cents US trade on Friday after President Donald Trump disputed several reports that the country was willing to lower tariffs on some Chinese imports.
"The stars aligned with the Australian dollar in October and it has risen more than 2% against the US dollar," said RBC in its latest currency evaluation report.
Why was October so good for $ A? RBC pointed out that interest rate spreads had moved in favor of the Australian, a general weakening of the greenback, the S& P 500 and a perceived lower risk in China.
"Together, these factors explain most of the rise in the AUD / USD pair during the month. At the beginning of November, this positive trend continued, which was reinforced by the RBA, suggesting that she was in no hurry to continue cutting rates and that she was in favor. she was seeing more and more evidence that the 75 basis point cuts achieved so far in this cycle were starting to bear fruit. "
RBC stated that the Reserve Bank's November 5 policy statement indicated that it would need more evidence of weakening activity before it could sanction new tax measures. easing.
As a result of this interpretation, RBC economists have postponed their expectations for the next edition of the RBA between February and December.
However, according to RBC, the current upward momentum of the currency will soon be held back by moderate gains in US dollars. "We are therefore expecting the AUD / USD to close the year close to current levels and our forecast profile remains unchanged this month."