“We are committed to exchange rate stability. We do not want there to be surprises in the market,” said the president of the BCRA, Miguel Pesce, while highlighting that “in years where there are electoral processes, speculation is always unleashed” about the dollar. He also pointed out that “in the third quarter the foreign exchange market suffers stress because the resources from the thick and fine crops stop entering.” “We are at that moment and I think we are going to go through it successfully, as we went through last year,” he said.
In this framework, the Central has two key challenges ahead: taking care of the reserves until December while waiting for the fine harvest that begins in December and as we had anticipated, one more factor is added as tourism begins to be one more variable. to consider. The openings to foreign tourists will attract dollars to the country but at the same time, it will stimulate demand on the official.
Analysts consulted by Ambit They gave their opinion on the new measures of the Central Bank and pointed out that in the short term, the restrictions will reduce the volumes operated in the “intervened” segments, but doubts are beginning to arise in the medium and long term.
“It seems to me that the new measures help especially on the side of advanced import payments. It took a long time to react. For example, the August figure is US $ 950 million in advanced import payments and is the highest level since July 2015. This data was published in the exchange balance and The BCRA should have this information before, it should react in advance and not after it had an import payment outflow so high that it went under the table“, he expressed Nicolas Pertierra, Chief Economist of the Center for Economic and Social Studies.
“The September / October run of last year seized the BCRA with fewer reserves than now and by intervening and regulating well, it accommodated the situation. Today it has the possibility of doing the same. It is also clear that the margin in reserves is shrinking and it is going to force a stricter control of imports. ” Regarding the impact it will have on tourism, Pertierra advanced: “Today you cannot tolerate an outflow of foreign exchange of 2 or 3 million dollars for tourism “.
In contrast, the economist Gabriel Rubinstein He presented a less optimistic outlook: “The reserve situation is very distressing, there are about US $ 5.5 billion of net reserves and US $ 2 billion of liquid reserves when the gold is taken out, but in any case it is very bad. They are looking all the time. measures to alleviate the drainage that if it continued at the previous rate we would arrive at the elections with negative liquid reserves that has already happened. So the situation is complicated “.
“With this they try to go against the demands of the market. The market demands CCL and they put obstacles but always the gaps tend to adjust because people continue to want to demand dollars. No matter how many obstacles there are, you always look for the return and so the effects are usually very ephemeral“he added.
“As for imports, the effects tend to be longer lasting because the financial market is not the same as the real one. Although they say that they will not affect inputs with optimistic government assumptions, it is generally harmed because there are many companies that have to pay for imports in advance and if not they do not turn over the merchandise and then there are productive problems so they are all measures as if we were in a war economy all the time. “
Finally he closed: “You can have some kind of result like the purchase but It is very difficult to think that an economy is going to grow with stocks and finally the reserves fall again because it is very difficult for foreign currency to enter in these circumstances. But obviously the elections are reached“.