Are these prices the new floor?

Parallel dollars experienced a week of high tension. On Tuesday, June 14, the blue dollar reached a new record, jumping $8 and closing at $224, in the midst of a stress scenario of the debt in pesos. The sudden rise moderated between Wednesday and Thursday, with a drop in the price to the $216.

For their part, the financial dollars that are traded in the stock market through the sale of bonds also climbed and remain at high values. The Counted With Liquidation (CCL) climbed $242.84 this Thursday, the highest value since January, and the gap with the wholesale exchange rate was expanded to 97.5%, while the MEP dollar o Bolsa ended the week at $235.

The parallel dollars began to wake up from the calm of the last month and a half at the end of last week, in the face of a sharp drop in CER (inflation-adjusted) bonds, driven by a wave of bailouts of those bonds in the Mutual Funds industry. Investment (FCI), for a combination of causes. Among them, the fear of a debt rebalancing in pesos.

Although the Banco Central (BCRA) went out to buy those CER securities to set a floor for the prices of those bonds in the face of the Treasury debt auction that took place this Tuesday, the parallel dollars accentuated the rises.

Analysts attribute the rise in blue and financial dollars to the fact that FCI bailouts take 48 hours to be credited. For this reason, only these days are they collecting those pesos and part of them is going to the US currency.

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Furthermore, it was known that the inflation May was 5.1%, which led to this Thursday the Central Bank will dictate a rise in the interest rate of fixed terms and other instruments, to try to keep savers in pesos and not go to the dollar.

Analysts see that the financial dollars still have a way to go up, and believe that these are floor values

Financial dollars: are these securities the new floor?

the financial analyst Christian Buteler He said that part of the pesos rescued from the FCI went to the parallel dollars because “it was an asset considered cheap, given that it remained stable in the face of inflation of 5% or 6% per month, and that is why we saw this jump.”

Before the jump of the financial dollars, an official of the economic area reasoned that “there were already other moments of tension in which they rose a lot, they had a overshooting, and then they went back down. And a lot of people lost money.

About, Fernando Baerof Quantum Finance, disagreed with that official view and opined to iProfessional that the CCL “has travel for long.”

of the same reading, Sebastian Menescaldi, director of Eco Go, judged that “these values ​​may be a floor more than a ceiling”, analyzing that “the context is different from the previous two times of tension, which were in October 2020 and the end of January this year” . And he warned that “we do not know where the financial dollars may end up if they fail to settle the debt in pesos“.

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“In those two moments of crisis the gap reached 130%, today it stands at 97%, there is still rest for the CCL to riseespecially considering that in the second half of the year there will be less supply of dollars because the liquidation of the thick crop is over,” he argued. Menescaldi also argued that the previous time the announcement of the agreement with the FMIbut remarked that “this time you are already in a program with the organization that is falling apart on all sides, with which I see it difficult for the financial dollars to fall in the coming weeks.”

The BCRA has difficulties adding reserves and it is another factor that puts pressure on free dollars

The BCRA has difficulties adding reserves and it is another factor that puts pressure on free dollars

Dollar: why would it continue to rise?

Diego Martinez Burzaco He agreed that “these are quite different situations. In October 2020, there was a pandemic context, the shutdown of the economy, with uncertainty about what was going to happen to the bondholders and the IMF, with the excessively high real multilateral exchange rate. Now Little more than a year and a half later, there is a giant accumulated inflation, a free financial exchange rate that moved relatively little in relation to inflation, and a much more limited BCRA balance sheet.” “Therefore, I would be quite cautious to say that a significant pullback could be seen. At the moment, nothing indicates that; On the contrary, there is a lot of distrust with the debt in pesos and, therefore, the investor seeks coverage in the exchange rate”founded.

For Emiliano Anselmi, PPI analyst, the CCL still “has a bull run”. And he projected: “In fact, in October 2020 the CCL touched a nominal ceiling of $180, which is equivalent to $390 today, and which we confirmed ex post was an overshoot. At that time, the evolution of the CCL (since December 2019) had surpassed the evolution of the amount of pesos (measured by Private M3). Today, we are in the opposite situation: taking from the same starting point, the CCL would lack 15% for the variables to converge”.

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Also, in PPI They stressed that the BCRA ended its participation in the official foreign exchange market (MULC) on Tuesday with sales of US$60 million to meet energy import payments of US$150 million. “In this way, the meager positive balance of June was erased, leaving a negative value of US$5 million. This is the worst monthly accumulated figure of the year, well below June 2021 (US$496 million), while the annual figure amounts to a $907 million,” they specified. And they warned:Even the demand for payments of energy import it has not reached its peak, which does not anticipate good news for the dollar in the second half“.

In turn, the analyst Gustavo Ber assured that “to the extent that the external and internal noises continue, the financial dollars will continue to be sustained and rearrange themselves upwards, especially towards the exchange balance and the expectation of monetary issuance towards the second semester.” And he emphasized: “They also couldn’t go on ironing much longer with high inflation.”

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