23 years have passed since August 17, the pain is still as fresh as the first day

It has been announced that the probability that the expected earthquake in Marmara will occur within 30 years, as of 1999, is 64 percent. With the statement that earth scientists raised the alarm after the Gölcük and Düzce earthquakes, Science Academy’s founding member and geoscientist prof. from Istanbul Technical University (ITU) Mining Faculty Department of Geological Engineering. Dr. Naci Gorur, “As experts, we have told the necessary places that these earthquakes threaten the Marmara region and therefore Istanbul. The Gölcük earthquake in particular transferred the energy that would normally accumulate under the Marmara in 250 years. This caused tension in the shell. We constantly warned both the government and the public to prepare Istanbul for an earthquake. said.


Görer said, “It has been scientifically announced that the probability of an earthquake expected in Marmara at any time within 30 years, from 1999, will be 64 percent. 23 years have passed since 1999. Since the probability of 64 percent until 2029, we have entered the last phase of the work. In our studies, if the fault line, which is part of Northern Anatolia under the Marmara, is broken, it causes an earthquake of minimum 7.2 and maximum 7.6 magnitude . If this earthquake occurs, the parts of Istanbul near the Marmara coast will be exposed to an earthquake of at least magnitude 9, and the further from the coast, the 8th magnitude earthquake will be exposed,” he said. said.

Saying that the time for repeating the fault line under the Marmara is over, Görür said: “The western part of the North Anatolian fault line, which passes through the Sea of ​​Marmara, was broken by the Şarköy earthquake in 1912 . With the Gölcük earthquake in 1999, the eastern part was broken. Considering the last earthquake there was in 1766, it coincides with the fault repeating the earthquake,” he said.


According to Görür that the North Anatolian fault line is a behavior pattern, Görür said: “When an earthquake occurs anywhere on this fault, its west becomes a target for earthquakes. As geoscientists, we began to scream. Marmara became threatened .That’s why Istanbul is also under threat.” Görür said that the government and local administrations started to do something after the Gölcük earthquake, Görür said: “We are happy because we thought that if we go at this speed, we will Istanbul for an earthquake in 10 years prepared. However, it faltered a bit when we got to 2006. Incentives waned, administrators and the public removed the event from the agenda. When the Van earthquake occurred in 2011, the earthquake resurfaced, ” he said.

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Görr, who stated that the government’s position changed with the pressure they exerted as scientists, said: “The government gave more importance to urgent intervention. In other words, they adopted the strategy of ‘Let there be an earthquake, don’t do what will be done after the earthquake’. It means ‘Let the dead die, then we will do what is necessary’. It works for politicians. Going to the earthquake zone with all the might of the government and dressing the wounds earns itself points. “Why didn’t you come before the earthquake?” must be asked though. Why did so many people die? We threw away 23 years for the earthquake, which was announced to happen in 30 years. “After today I have no faith in the rulers,” he said.


Görür said that the earthquake was also a major economic disaster, saying: “The Marmara region has 60 percent of Turkey’s production power. Unfortunately, the majority of industrial facilities are here. All the eggs are placed in the same basket. When the expected “When an earthquake occurs, it hits the economy. Economically, the country’s kneeling means that it loses its economic independence,” he said.


According to the research, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5 would cause approximately 25 million tons of debris, said ITU faculty member of the Department of Environmental Engineering and member of the IMM Scientific Advisory Board prof. Dr. Seval Sözen said, “Although many studies have been carried out in this long period since the 1999 earthquake, unfortunately a visible action plan could not be implemented. It was also too late to make the building stock earthquake resistant in Istanbul. The basic vision should be changed and the focus should be on the renovation of high-risk structures that will only lead to loss of life. In this framework, start from the priority areas in terms of ground conditions and the renovation of the buildings should be carried out in a systematic manner. With emphasizing that a recycling facility should be established for the evaluation of construction and demolition waste within a plan, Sözen said: “When it is predicted that the 25 million tons of demolition waste expected to be generated in a possible earthquake for Istanbul , can be recycled at a rate of 60-70% under the worst conditions, 15 million tons of recyclable debris from the IMM. It will have to create the infrastructure that will enable the recycling of the waste within a certain calendar”.

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Stating that infrastructure security must also be quickly ensured, Sözen said, “Additional pipes and storage facilities of around 30-40 liters per person per day should be established in areas where urgent measures are required, using materials that are not affected by earthquakes will not be , to meet the urgent needs. In addition to the water supply, the waste water generated must be collected and removed through safe lines so that it does not cause any health problems in the region. If the post-earthquake planning is not implemented, the city will become unlivable for a long time.


Stating that 23 years have passed since the earthquake, disaster management in Turkey is seen as rescuing people from the rubble, ITU Disaster Management Institute Director Prof. Dr. Mikdat Kadıoğlu said, “If we do not reduce the number of buildings that will be heavily damaged in the earthquake to 10, if we do not strengthen them without an earthquake, it will not be possible to manage the disaster. Disaster management is about making existing risk manageable, not search and rescue. We have to work on how people won’t be under the rubble, but we couldn’t see that in Turkey,” he said. Saying that the president or his vice president should come to Istanbul and gather all parties for the earthquake, Kadıoğlu said: “It is not possible for a municipality or ministry to handle the disaster management alone, especially in the earthquake expected in Marmara.

When the earthquake occurs, all the teams in Istanbul and their families will be victims. In Istanbul, these people can’t help themselves. It is not possible that foreign aid can be delivered to all parts of Istanbul within the first 72 hours,” he said.

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Sadettin Tantan, who was the Minister of the Interior at the time of the earthquake, recounted what happened that night. Tantan said: “I was sleeping in the Ministry of Home Affairs accommodation when the earthquake happened. When I felt there was an earthquake, I got up and came to the ministry by taxi. The first few minutes the phone worked. I called Izmit and Sakarya. When I asked where the buildings collapsed in Sakarya, I learned that the buildings collapsed in the damaged areas in the 1967 earthquake. When the Kocaeli governor said that TÜPRAŞ was on fire, I made appointments.” The then Home Affairs Minister, Tantan, who appointed the health teams, said: “We created a crisis center in the ministry, but then communication was cut off. The paths collapsed and parted. An order was given to open the roads. The next day we toured the region by helicopter. By separating the districts for measures to be taken, we ensured that anyone providing support for the rescue of people was sent. People were helped,” he said.

Tantan said that there was a lot of pain and said, “The 50th government ruling the Republic of Turkey has provided assistance and restructuring to heal the wounds.” Tantan said: “After the earthquake, steps were taken to develop the Civil Defense Organisation, now called AFAD. Regional centers have been opened in 10-12 provinces. Special training was arranged. Civil defense experts have been trained,” he said.





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