As early as 2021, billions were invested in corona vaccines worldwide. According to forecasts, this market will be even larger in 2022.
Vaccines are the great hope in the fight against the coronavirus. For their developers, a market niche emerged overnight in spring 2020, which promises billions in revenue and which now has to be filled with major challenges.
Measured against the global population and the partial need for multiple vaccinations, DZ Bank estimates in a study presented at the end of May that around 6.6 billion vaccine doses will be required worldwide in 2021 and even more in 2022 with almost 10 billion.
Doubling of the market volume forecast
In their study, the DZ-Bank experts calculated a market volume of 93 billion US dollars for the “Western” companies based on the production commitments and vaccine prices. This cake has so far been distributed among four approved vaccines from these companies: The German company Biontech, which was co-founded by the Austrian Christoph Huber, is a pioneer with its new mRNA technology, on which the US competitor Moderna also relies, as well as the vector vaccines from Astrazeneca and Johnson & Johnson.
In 2022, if, for example, other vaccines should be established by companies such as Curevac or Novavax, the DZ experts expect the market volume to rise to 217 billion dollars. In addition to the high global demand, they also expect a price surge as soon as the World Health Organization (WHO) declares the pandemic to be over. Then AstraZeneca in particular would no longer be bound to a sale at cost, which was previously the case because of a license agreement with the University of Oxford as the actual vaccine developer.
Long-term successful market
Because of the permanent nature of the coronavirus and the need to refresh it, the experts present the prospects for investors as rosy in the long term: “From an investor’s point of view, the issue of coronavirus vaccine production could well advance from a ‘flash in the pan’ to a long-running hit.” There are likely to be many profiteers beyond the vaccine developers. “Overall, according to our research, more than ten companies are involved in the production of the Biontech vaccine,” it said. AstraZeneca has built a global supply network with more than 25 production facilities in 15 countries.